My portfolio has increased by 6.97% YTD as compared to -1.09% for KLCI index, +1.64% for FMB100 index and +2.20% for FBMEMAS. The market has recovered in June, perhaps people overreacted from Trump’s silly Twitter messages in May.
However, I am still very defensive with 52.45% of my portfolio in cash. I am convinced that the market will go into recession despite all the efforts from the Federal Reserve to prop the market. The underlying reasoning is simple, keep rates low, people will use these “low-interest rates” to buy risky assets, eventually, yield-chasing will cause many problems to the economy.
People of my generation has never experienced a full-blown recession, we must prepare for the eventual recession as the economic cycle is coming to an end. I might be wrong about this, the recession might not happen this year or next year, but I will rather be on the err side of things. Eventually, I will be right about the recession. At what cost? Opportunity cost. This is a risk I am willing to take.
